Growth Prediction of Olive Varieties Based on Climate Parameters

Several Methods based on regression techniques are used for the prediction of phenological phases in modern olive growing. This study collects phenological observations and agrometeorological data for several Italian provinces. The aim of the analysis was to provide a geographically tailored value for the base temperature, i.e., the most important parameter in determining the growing Degree Days (GDD): Machine learning methods were compared to optimize phenological predictions and the base temperature for heat unit accumulation. For prediction for the target variable like rainfall, temperature, and relative humidity and evaporation. The use of a low base temperature resulted in better model prediction, which has added value under a warming climate scenario.

Keywords- Phenophase, olive phenology modeling, BBCH scale, machine learning, base temperature